Category Archives: Military

MEMORIAL DAY – 28 MAY 18 – DECORATION DAY

Photo from a recent Pleasanton Memorial Day observance shows members of the American Legion, VFW color-guards and local Scouts posting the colors.

NFL Clueless Crybaby Losers

By Jim O’Neill

I am going to attempt to write this article without using any cuss words, but whenever I think of the NFL’s clueless crybaby a–holes I…nope, not going to be able to do it.

My apologies in advance to anyone who may be offended.  If you are offended by profanity then I suggest you stop reading right now.

Hint to the NFL and their crybaby players: Without the United States of America there would be no f—king NFL you clueless Cretans.  The only reason you pathetic, ungrateful, arrogant twits get to play your GAME and earn outrageous sums of money (ludicrously out of proportion to what you contribute to society) is because America exists in the first place.

The unmitigated gall of the NFL and its crybaby players refusing to honor America is breathtaking in its arrogant ignorance, warped sense of unearned entitlement, and dismissive disdain for the United States of America, the most spiritually elevated and free country this world has ever known.

Another hint: The NFL and its crybaby loser players are being played like a violin by the puppet-masters behind the globalist agenda.  The NFL and its kneeling/no-show players are nothing but useful tools/fools being played.  In their ignorance, these tools/fools think that they being oh so clever and “resisting.”  In truth, they are being played by the grievance-mongers like a Stradivarius.  They are nothing but unpatriotic boneheaded idiots…arrogant unpatriotic boneheaded idiots.

Don’t even think about giving me some c—p about how the crybaby players are simply expressing their 1st Amendment rights.  If they can’t respect our flag, the symbol of this great country, then they should get the f—k out, MOVE.  Go to Cuba or North Korea and try out your whining and moaning in those countries.  Let me know how it goes dips—ts.  No, don’t bother, I already know how it will go.  The problem is you don’t.  You have no idea how good you have it in America you clueless, ungrateful schmucks.

I suppose their attitude is understandable, perhaps, even inevitable, given the state of America’s mis-education system (more of an anti-American indoctrination system actually).  America is more often than not portrayed as the “bad guy” – always and in all ways.

This unremittingly negative portrayal of America is bound to have a deadening, dampening effect on the patriotism of the students who undergo such indoctrination.  When you look at America through c—p colored glasses it is bound to look s—ty.

The answer is not to look at America through rose-tinted glasses, but to see America through clear lenses.  That is the only way to achieve a balanced view of things – to balance America’s faults, past and present, against its virtues, past and present – and America’s virtues, history of success, compassion, and innovation are second to none.

But the NFL (and some other major sports) do not look at the United States through a clear lens.  They look at it through the c—p colored lens (negative, dismissive attitude).  Add agit-prop grievance-mongers egging on NFL players who have little sense of gratitude and a bloated sense of entitlement, and you have a recipe for the unpatriotic anti-American c—p We the People have had to put up with.

Personally, I have tuned out the NFL and its overpaid crybaby ingrates.

Addendum:  Not all NFL players are whiny crybaby losers, thank God, and I salute the patriotism of those players who stand for America.  I would like to make special mention of Pittsburgh Steeler Alejandro Villanueva, #78.

While the rest of his teammates cowered in the locker-room when the national anthem was played on Sunday, Villanueva, who served as a US Army Ranger in Afghanistan (three tours I believe), stood tall and proud, and alone.

Hooyah Captain Villanueva – Bravo Zulu!

Belle Plaine MN Allows Satanic Monument In City Park

“Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do.” Luke 23:34 KJV… FR



Belle Plaine MN Allows Satanic Monument In City Park

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/07/11/belle-plaine-satanic-monument/


MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — A small Minnesota town is getting a lot of attention for a Satanic monument coming to their veterans park.

The monument going up for The Satanic Temple — which features an upturned helmet atop a black cube — will soon be at the site of the Veterans Memorial Park in Belle Plaine.

It is being built by a group of Satanists out of Massachusetts, and it will be the first Satanic monument on public property in United States history.

belle plaine veterans memorial park Belle Plaine Allows Satanic Monument In City Park

Belle Plaine Veterans Memorial Park

Video Here:

The city is allowing the monument to be built after a religious freedom group threatened to sue over another statue, which features a soldier praying over a grave marked with a cross.City officials say the memorial, which is not inside the park yet, is finished, but they are still working out a date for when it will go in.

It has to be put in a small area called “The Free Speech Zone.” It is an area designated to 10 or fewer memorials, as long as they honor veterans.

“They said they were putting it up and I did not like it,” said resident Donna Karnitz.

belle plaine satanic monument Belle Plaine Allows Satanic Monument In City Park

The monument created by The Satanic Temple

City Councilmember Cary Coop says he voted against the designated free speech area.

“I don’t think there’s too many Satanists around here, but it’s free speech,” Coop said.

He says they anticipated other groups coming in.

“We were warned against creating this free speech zone, and it will be probably be just as well that we didn’t have one, that people could use private property to say whatever they want,” Coop said.

monument in belle plaine veterans memorial park Belle Plaine Allows Satanic Monument In City Park

The monument that originally started the fervor at Veterans Memorial Park

Karnitz, whose husband is a veteran of the Vietnam War, says she finds the new Satanic monument offensive.

“It was approved a while back already, and it has not come here,” she said. “I am hoping and praying that it doesn’t come into the park here [laughs]!”

Karnitz is not alone. There is a protest planned at the park on Saturday during the city’s popular BBQ Days festival.

Despite its name, the Satanic Temple says it does not promote a belief in a personal Satan and that that “religion can, and should, be divorced from superstition.”

Funerals Set For Airborne Soldiers Killed In Afghanistan

Funerals Set For Airborne Soldiers Killed In Afghanistan

President Trump: About Terry Lakin

By Jim O’Neill

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Preamble to the United States Constitution

As military officers, we owe our ultimate loyalty not to superior officers or even to the president, but rather, to the Constitution.”

Lt. Gen. Thomas G. McInerney  (USAF Ret.)

“I think many in the military – and many out of the military – question the natural-birth status of Barack Obama.”  

Major General Paul E. Vallely (US Army Ret.)

First off – will Congress and/or SCOTUS please get off their collective butts and clearly, emphatically, and unequivocally define exactly what is meant by “Natural Born” from Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 of the US Constitution? 

Good God, it is unbelievable that such a vitally important term has not been legally and clearly defined so that there is no question what it means.  I realize that the wheels of government move slowly, and I don’t mean to sound impatient, but hey, it’s been over 200 years.  Just saying.

Depending on how “Natural Born” is defined (and you can take your pick from several differing interpretations) then Obama was, or was not, legally POTUS – and Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Bobby Jindal (to mention a few) can, or cannot, legally become President of the United States.  So, this is a very important point, a very big deal.

Personally, I believe that the term “Natural Born” refers to a person born in the United States (or a territory under US jurisdiction) to parents who are both US citizens at the time of the “Natural Born” citizen’s birth.  But legal precedents aside (e.g. “Minor v. Happersett” and “United States v. Wong Kim Ark”) the definition of “Natural Born” remains murky – at least in the minds of many.  So, Congress, SCOTUS — earn your pay, do your job (finally).

This article is about Terry Lakin, and defining the term “Natural Born” may seem an unwarranted distraction in that context…but Obama’s eligibility to be POTUS is a big part of Terry’s story, so the importance of officially defining “Natural Born” is an apropos issue to discuss.  In any event, time to get into the meat of this article.

Although Terry’s story was front page news several years ago, many of our attention spans are less than optimal (mine included), so perhaps a brief refresher on his case is in order.  What follows is a short synopsis of what made him so newsworthy.

In 2010 Terry Lakin was a Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) in the US Army when he was sent orders for redeployment to Afghanistan.  To make a long story short, LTC Lakin refused to go to Afghanistan because he had serious doubts regarding Obama’s qualifications to be Commander in Chief (sometimes abbreviated as CINC — pronounced “sink”) of the US military.

“My motivation stems from my oath of office to defend and uphold the Constitution, it’s the constitution that needs to be upheld.”

LTC Terry Lakin

[Sidebar: LTC Lakin’s medals and decorations include the Army Flight Surgeon Badge, Combat Medical Badge, the Bronze Star Medal, the Meritorious Service Medal, the Army Commendation Medal with two Oak Leaf Clusters, the Army Achievement Medal with one Oak Leaf Cluster, the National Defense Service Medal with Bronze Service Star, the Armed Forces Expedition Medal, the Army Reserve Component Achievement Medal, the Army Service Ribbon, the Overseas Service Ribbon sixth award and the NATO service medal.  End of Sidebar]

You may recall that on his first full day as CINC Obama enacted Executive Order 13489, which in essence sealed his past history from public scrutiny.  The President of the United States does not want “we the people” to know who he is?  WTF?  At least that was my reaction – and I was hardly alone.  Shortly afterwards the so called “birther movement” grew legs and took off running.

Among the many records the Obama camp has refused to release are the marriage license of his father (Barack Sr.) and mother (Stanley Ann Dunham), name-change records (Barry Soetero to Barack Hussein Obama), adoption records, records of his and his mother’s repatriation as U.S. citizens from Indonesia, baptism records, Noelani Elementary School (Hawaii) records, Punahou School financial aid or school records, Occidental College financial aid records, Harvard Law School records, Columbia senior thesis, Columbia College records, record with Illinois State Bar Association, files from his terms as an Illinois state senator, his law client list, medical records and passport records.

Bob Urah “Sheriff’s probe finds Obama birth certificate ‘fake’

The reaction of the MSM globalist propaganda machine to the birther movement was immediate, vociferous, and massive.  Ridicule (rule #5 of Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals) and smoke ‘n’ mirrors obfuscation were employed in a firehose stream of denial and derision.  I wrote about it at the time:

Let’s pretend for a moment that we’re not all being treated like mentally challenged six-year-olds, and that it’s out on the table that the current POTUS has been blatantly hiding his past from the American electorate. Let’s also pretend that neither the media, nor our judicial system, find it laughably funny when “we the people” insist on knowing the REAL history of the person running America’s economy, military, and domestic/foreign policies.  If we pretend all those things, then it makes perfect sense to question Obama’s eligibility to be POTUS….

Adding to LTC Lakin’s concerns was the fact that according to the official narrative, Obama’s father was a Kenyan who was never a US citizen, let alone at the time of the CINC’s birth – which according to the definition of “Natural Born” mentioned above, made Obama constitutionally ineligible to be POTUS.  It is also of note that Obama’s long form birth certificate was not released (digital copy only) until after LTC Lakin was court-martialed, found guilty, and sent to prison.

[Sidebar: In order to silence critics of the digital representation of his short form birth certificate, on April 27, 2011 Obama released a digital version of his long form birth certificate.  The years long Arpaio/Zullo investigation strongly suggests that Obama’s online long form birth certificate is a forgery.  End of Sidebar]

Before going any further, let me state that this article is not about taking sides on the question of Obama’s eligibility to be POTUS, or the particulars of his birth.  It is concerned with the grave injustice done to LTC Lakin.  I have simply been laying out the historical background surrounding Terry Lakin’s trial and imprisonment in order to provide context.

I am basically pounding two drums (and only two) in this article: (1) that the term “Natural Born” be clearly defined by Congress or the SCOTUS, and (2) that Terry Lakin is an American hero who deserves the “Medal of Freedom” or “Congressional Gold Medal” for his valorous defense of the US Constitution.

LTC Lakin took the stand that he did because of the sort of man that he was, and is – a stalwart American patriot whose love of country, honesty, honor, and belief in the US Constitution should make him an exemplar to every man and woman in uniform.  Heck, to every American patriot.

In late 2010 he was found guilty of failing to obey orders and stripped of his rank and benefits.  He was sent to the military prison at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.  He served his time and has been a free man since May of 2011.

Recently a petition was started to “Reinstate Lt. Col. Terry Lakin into the U.S. Army with full rank, pay, benefits and pension immediately.”  I received an email from Terry a couple of days ago – the excerpt below should give you a glimpse of the man’s character.

Gary [Wilmott] started the petition.  It got out there.  I’m not holding my breath that much will come of it.  My friend Marco, Charles Kerchner, Erik Rush, Peter Boyles and others have all jumped in to help.  

 Personally, I’m patient.  I think Trump has a lot to do.  …I have been blessed by the Lord and am providing for my family and others.  I cannot forget that there are so many others still in Leavenworth [whose cases are more urgent].

Given his hitherto unblemished record, undeniable professionalism, unquestioned patriotism, and respect for the US Constitution, LTC Lakin could have, and should have, received much better treatment at the hands of the US Army.  The Army’s railroading of LTC Lakin was disgraceful and a stain on their honor.  The whole thing stinks of the political intrigues surrounding “The Dreyfus Affair.”

As Terry notes, President Trump no doubt has bigger fish to fry at the moment (and for some time to come one suspects), but, when he finds the time, I believe that an official Presidential pardon for LTC Terry Lakin is in order.  I have full faith that President Trump will do the right thing when time allows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russian state newspapers predict ‘direct military conflict’ with US as it compares Syria stalemate to Cuban missile crisis

MOSCOW ON THE OFFENSIVE

‘Third World War’ fears have been voiced by the newspapers over the growing tensions between the USA and Syria

Putin Undercuts Obama: Russia to Host Middle East Peace Talks

Putin promotes national sovereignty over globalism

Russian president Vladmir Putin is asserting himself as the next broker for Middle East peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, a sign of his continued ambition to supplant the U.S. – and Obama – as the major power broker in the region.

Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that Putin would be willing to host Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for talks at the Kremlin, reported Egyptian media.

“The Russian president has informed me that he has invited Palestinian President [Abbas] and Prime Minister Netanyahu for a meeting in Moscow,” al-Sisi said. “Egypt supports these efforts and both sides are urged to participate and respond positively to the initiative for the sake of finding light at the end of the tunnel for Palestinians and establishing their state alongside Israel.”

Egypt’s role in the process would be “that which convinces the sides that if peace will be attained light will shine on the entire region,” according to al-Sisi.

He added that Fatah and Hamas, the opposing Palestinian political parties, needed to make amends and end their civil war in order for the peace talks to be successful.

In July, Palestinian leaders presented several preconditions for participating in a trilateral Israeli-Egyptian-Palestinian peace summit in Cairo, including a freeze on Israeli settlement construction.

Abbas also demanded that Israel accept negotiations based on the pre-1967 boundary lines and pledge ahead of time to implement any agreements reached in the talks.

Putin originally suggested a Moscow peace conference in 2005, but the U.S., in hopes to contain Russia’s diplomatic influence, opposed it.

But after a decade under Obama’s tired lead-from-behind strategy coupled with ISIS’s regional destabilization, conditions in the Middle East have continued to give Putin the leverage he needs step in and show Russia’s influence as a regional power player.

Veteran Kills Himself in Parking Lot of V.A. Hospital on Long Island

Veteran Kills Himself in Parking Lot of V.A. Hospital on Long Island

Report: US Moving Nukes Closer to Ukraine

Pentagon denies, but evidence suggests otherwise

The US is reportedly moving nukes from Turkey to Romania amid rising tensions in Ukraine – and after a recent report warned that ISIS could steal the nukes in Turkey.

At least 50 tactical nukes are stored at the Incirlik Air Base about 70 miles from the Syrian border, and according to EurActiv, the US is moving at least 20 of them to Romania, which shares a border with Ukraine.

US officials have denied the claim, but recent developments reveal there’s credibility to the reported nuke transfer.

For one thing, Turkey is now considering military ties with Russia due to its deteriorating relationship with NATO.

“It seems to us that NATO members behave in an evasive fashion on issues such as the exchange of technology and joint investments,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Sputnik, a Russian news outlet. “Turkey intends to develop its own defense industry and strengthen its defense system.”

“In this sense, if Russia were to treat this with interest, we are ready to consider the possibility of cooperation in this sector.”

Additionally, the Pentagon is claiming that nearly 40,000 Russian troops are massing on Russia’s border with Ukraine, including armored vehicles, tanks and fighter jets.

And the nukes stored in Turkey are at risk of being stolen by ISIS, according to a report by the Stimson Center.

“From a security point of view, it’s a roll of the dice to continue to have approximately 50 of America’s nuclear weapons stationed at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey,” said report co-author Laicie Heeley. “There are significant safeguards in place… but safeguards are just that, they don’t eliminate risk.”

“In the event of a coup, we can’t say for certain that we would have been able to maintain control.”

The US has already evacuated the dependents of US service members from the base, the report pointed out, so why wouldn’t the nukes also get transferred?

Facebook: RealKitDaniels

Munich Attack Fallout: Germany Prepares for Domestically Deployed Military

Post WWII German constitution limits role of Bundeswehr

Following WWII and the defeat of the Nazis, the German constitution forbid the military, known as the Bundeswehr, to be used domestically except in instances of national emergency.

That post-war restriction may soon come to an end.

In the aftermath of the Munich attacks last week, Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper it “would be completely incomprehensible … if we had a terrorist situation like Brussels in Frankfurt, Stuttgart or Munich and we were not permitted to call in the well-trained forces of the Bundeswehr, even though they stand ready.”

Herrmann said the restriction is now obsolete and Germans have a “right to safety.”

Thomas Strobl of the ruling Christian Democratic Party agreed. He said if Germany faces “a large-scale, serious terrorist situation, we must also bring in the Bundeswehr.”

The Greens and members of the Social Democratic Party warned against “domestic calls for more surveillance, isolation and military [intervention],” and added the Munich attack would be exploited politically.

The German government, however, had planned to lift restrictions on Bundeswehr prior to the Munich attack.

Photo published for Sicherheitspolitik: Bundeswehr bereitet sich auf Einsatz im Innern vor

Christoph Harig @c_harig

Bundeswehr preparing joint exercises with police, possible internal missions in vaguely defined cases of terrorismhttp://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2016-07/sicherheitspolitik-bundeswehr-innern-grundgesetz-uebungen 

 

Preparing For War: Russian Citizens Stocking up on Essential Supplies

Moscow residents buying matches & salt as fears of new NATO conflict accelerate.

Russian citizens across the country are stocking up on essential supplies like salt, matches and buckwheat in preparation for war, according to an expert who recently visited the region.

Jill Dougherty, who served as CNN’s Foreign Affairs Correspondent for three decades, reveals how Russians are paranoid about a major imminent conflict in an article for the Wilson Center.

After explaining how a taxi driver in Moscow asked her, “When are we going to war?”, Dougherty relates how she traveled from “the Baltic region, to Georgia, and to Russia” and that “talk of war is everywhere”.

“At the office I ask a Russian employee about the mood in his working-class Moscow neighborhood,” she writes. “The old people are buying salt, matches and “gretchka,” (buckwheat) he tells me – the time-worn refuge for Russians stocking up on essentials in case of war.”

According to Dougherty, many prominent voices in Russia are incredibly concerned about NATO’s increasingly harsh rhetoric and military maneuvers.

She cites comments made by Sergei Karaganov, foreign affairs expert and member of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy and Defense Council, who told Der Spiegel that the western propaganda offensive against Russia is “reminiscent of the period preceding a new war.”

As Mac Slavo explains, all signs point to a major escalation.

“With Vladimir Putin having recently purged 50 of his top commanders following an old Soviet doctrine that calls for exactly such maneuvers ahead of war, there appear to be a variety of actions being undertaken by both East and West in anticipation of a large-scale conflict.”

“NATO is deploying more assets to the Eastern front and the Russians for, their part, are feverishly deploying new weapons systems, one of which is reportedly capable of obliterating an entire U.S. state the size of Texas, as well as a Tsunami torpedo that could wipe out entire coastal cities.”

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paul.j.watson.71

 

“Why They Didn’t Fire Is A Mystery”

“Why They Didn’t Fire Is A Mystery” – Coup Pilots Had Erdogan’s Plane In Their Sights And Did Nothing

Why did the organizers not do the first thing that military coups have done since time immemorial?

Looking back at the failed Turkish coup, one question that nobody has been able to answer is why, if the coup was indeed a serious attempt at government overthrow, did the organizers not do the first thing that military coups have done since time immemorial: either capture, or simply eliminate the existing ruler, the vacationing president Erdogan?

The following brief story will only add to the confusion (or maybe not).

As Reuters reports, at the height of the attempt to overthrow Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the rebel pilots of two F-16 fighter jets had Erdogan’s plane in their sights. And yet he was able to fly on.

The government narrative, completely fabricated as it may be, is the following:

Twitter

View image on Twitter

This is probably Erdogan’s plane: Turkish Government GIV TC-ATA circling now@avischarf

 

The CIA has a team of clairvoyants

The CIA has a team of clairvoyants

If the CIA had a crystal ball, then they would probably not be routinely blindsided by world events. Lacking such a device, the agency has endured notable analytical failures. During the early 1990s, sudden collapses of Somalia, Zaire, Rwanda, and the Soviet Union seemingly appeared without warning.

Strategic surprises have always been a problem for intelligence agencies. The material impossibility of having eyes everywhere requires making judgments without seeing a complete picture, let alone the future. Assessing the likeliness of future rare political events has had dubious reliability.

Thus, in 1994, the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence commissioned the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), formerly known as the State Failure Task Force, a clairvoyant-esque squad of social-scientist brainiacs charged with churning global political data into global instability forecasts.

The creation of the PITF began at end of the Cold War. The PITF’s mission is straightforward  —  make intelligence analysis as holistic as possible, and locate where the next crisis might be, and why.

“The collapse of the Soviet Union completely caught the government off guard. Their models didn’t capture that at all. [Their models] didn’t even accept it,” Monty Marshall, a senior consultant for the PITF and director of the Center for Systemic Peace told War Is Boring.

“The intelligence community was looking for alternative explanations,” he added. “The old way of thinking, wasn’t catching the new dynamics, trends, that don’t fit into the way they understand things.”

To meet this task, the team recruited from American academia and included leading political scientists, sociologists and methodologists. In the beginning, they focused on variables as broad as environmental degradation and social conflict. The focus later shifted to cover four main topics  —  revolutionary and ethnic civil war onset, adverse regime change, state collapse, and genocide.

PITF calculates each event’s chance of occurring with probabilistic forecasts from six months to two years out, in 167 countries, which the team monitors on a daily basis. Within every country, the PITF’s global model accounts for baseline political dynamics, and disruptions in patterns within these dynamics.

The results of the forecasts hold impressive heuristic accuracy. “[With] what this approach can do  —  probabilistic models  —  they’re stuck at about 80 percent accuracy. That’s good. That’s why we’re still around,” Marshall said.

In addition to accurate forecasting, the PITF’s reports inform the intelligence community and U.S. policymakers. According to Marshall, the PITF’s reports are used mainly for the National Intelligence Council’s annual intelligence estimates.

Interestingly, the relationship between military coups and civil wars are closer than previously thought. According to the PITF’s data, government officials will often resort to regime change as a tactic to prevent civil war from occurring.

“A relatively strong government will try [a military coup] to avoid a conflict dynamic that would otherwise lead to civil war,” Marshall said. “Sometimes they are successful at averting civil war and sometimes they are not.”

“We discovered that the lead indicator was an obscure variable in the data, which we call factionalism,” he added. “That is the most powerful driver in the global model, and the most powerful driver at predicting regime change.”

Considering this finding regarding “factionalism”  —  or oppositional groups that are close to a nation’s leader  —  could affect analysis of autocratic regimes around the world, including dangerous ones to international security such as Syria, North Korea, and Iran.

“Regime change” as a topic of forecasting is not limited to the PITF’s current global model. Jay Ulfelder, former director of the PITF, currently runs a semi-yearly “Coup Forecasts” analysis with his own predictive model, quantifying the likeliness of coup attempts around the world.

“Over the past few years, most coup attempts have happened in countries in the top 30 on my risk assessments, and often in ones pretty close to the top of those lists,” Ulfeder told War Is Boring via email. “Burkina Faso was fifth with a predicted probability of about 15 percent, and Burundi was 26th with a predicted probability of about 5 percent.”

Burkina Faso and Burundi experienced coup attempts in 2015. If his last forecasts, quantified in 2014, still hold probabilistic weight today, then political analysts should keep an eye on Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Equatorial-Guinea, and Niger  —  the most likely places for military coups, according to the data.

Ulfelder’s focus on military coups are due to the relative accuracy in predicting them, as opposed to other types of upheaval.

“Topics like social unrest and the onset of insurgencies have turned out to be harder to forecast well,” he added. “So progress has been uneven.”

Despite the useful applications of the PITF, the relationship between academically inclined forecasters and government consumers has not been without problems.

The academics at PITF seek to improve their social science craft and the expand the furthering of knowledge, while their spy handlers seek quick answers  —  which the project is not fully suited to provide.

Predicting world politics “is a superficial understanding of it, but that’s what the government wants,” Marshall said. “They’re still working hard, and they can’t get it. We were looking at our understanding of how things work, whereas the intelligence community was looking for something to you know, give them the answers.”

“A cheat sheet, mainly.”

This misunderstanding of what predictive modeling is supposed frustrates Ulfelder as well. Trends point where to look, not what will happen.

“Most of the phenomena studied by social scientists are inherently hard to predict well,” Ulfelder said. “Making a probabilistic forecast is more about trying to quantify our uncertainty than it is about presuming we can be ‘right’ all the time.”

Furthermore, the focus of the intelligence community on data-driven forecasts has resulted in more quantitative methodologists  —  rather than more social scientists  —  being added to the PITF team. This shift, according to Marshall, has become problematic.

“The analysts can’t inform the policy community if they get all of their information from the machine. They have to understand the politics that go into the machine.”

Marshall maintains there should be an emphasis on the human elements of forecasting. “There are almost infinite combinations of variables to use in the model. The results are mainly noise, and to identity the signal is the job of the analyst  —  to separate that from the noise.”

In this vein, the CIA pursues other, more mechanized forecast projects seeking to further automate global trend-casting. The Lockheed Martin managed Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) derives its abilities from “Big Data,” tapping into the new availability of open source materials provided principally by the Internet.

“A cheat sheet, mainly.”

This misunderstanding of what predictive modeling is supposed frustrates Ulfelder as well. Trends point where to look, not what will happen.

“Most of the phenomena studied by social scientists are inherently hard to predict well,” Ulfelder said. “Making a probabilistic forecast is more about trying to quantify our uncertainty than it is about presuming we can be ‘right’ all the time.”

Furthermore, the focus of the intelligence community on data-driven forecasts has resulted in more quantitative methodologists  —  rather than more social scientists  —  being added to the PITF team. This shift, according to Marshall, has become problematic.

“The analysts can’t inform the policy community if they get all of their information from the machine. They have to understand the politics that go into the machine.”

Marshall maintains there should be an emphasis on the human elements of forecasting. “There are almost infinite combinations of variables to use in the model. The results are mainly noise, and to identity the signal is the job of the analyst  —  to separate that from the noise.”

In this vein, the CIA pursues other, more mechanized forecast projects seeking to further automate global trend-casting. The Lockheed Martin managed Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) derives its abilities from “Big Data,” tapping into the new availability of open source materials provided principally by the Internet.

But even Big Data methods are far from infallible.

“It’s like watching a river evolve, only with geological time sped up to real time,” Ulfelder noted. “So how do you design a process to turn all that information into data, and then learn things from those data, that isn’t already broken as soon as you finish designing it?”

Beyond searching for work-arounds of the social science aspects of PITF, the CIA is interested in removing humans from the equation altogether. “They are furiously working away to find a mechanical way to replace me,” Marshall said. “I can’t blame them.”

“What makes the intelligence handlers most uncomfortable is that I supply almost all the data that runs their models.”

While deliberation over what directions the PITF should take will continue, both political scientists are confident in the nature of their work, and the need for more like it. The scholars even have philanthropic forecasting projects that use predictive modeling for humanitarian work.

Ulfelder is a consultant at the Center for the Prevention of Genocide, where he designs, builds, and advises on the operation and development of a public early warning system to prevent mass atrocities around the world.

The project, a first of its kind, includes a Statistical Risk world map, outlining where the world’s next atrocities are likeliest to occur. Currently Sudan, Nigeria and Burma are the riskiest.

In a related function, Marshall heads the non-profit Center for Systemic Peace. The center’s Global Reports outline the possibilities of reducing political violence through a systemic understanding of the world. For both this project, and the work of the PITF, Marshall believes in the practical application of both forecasting and understanding global trends.

“The overall important finding is that there is a scientific basis to human behavior and how to view human behavior, make it predictable, manageable even understandable,” he said. “We can manage human behavior and we can avoid violence as an outcome.”

Indeed, if the PITF’s global model continues to forecast with 80 percent accuracy, then preventing negative political outcomes will remain a possibility that many  —  inside and outside of government  —  would like to pursue.

From drones to AKs, high technology to low politics, War is Boring explores how and why we fight above, on, and below an angry world. Sign up for its daily email update here or subscribe to its RSS Feed here.

 

Army Strong?

In the summer of 1980, I volunteered to be an Army Drill Sergeant. As a Drill Sergeant candidate, I was sent to Fort McClellan, Alabama the former home of the Women’s Army Corps (WAC). Then it was the home of the Military Police One Station Unit Training (OSUT), Chemical schools Advanced Individual Training (AIT), and a Basic Combat Training (BCT) Brigade. By autumn, I had completed Drill Sergeant School and was returned to my unit, where for the next two and a half years, I moved 14 platoons through BCT.

At the time I began my tour, the Army was experimenting with integrated BCT consisting of males and females in the same company, but in all male or all female platoons. The experiment, for lack of a better term, failed. We returned to gender segregated BCT.

I trained males and females in gender integrated and gender segregated companies. Integrated companies presented unnecessary problems for training cadre. Just a simple example – when we force marched a company, the straggler vehicle would be collecting primarily female trainees. Ultimately the pace was reduced so that most females could keep up.  Before that happened however, there were multiple stress fractures, mostly pelvic, caused by females lengthening stride to keep up. There were other distractions that could have been avoided also. That is the escapades of teenagers, male and female, locked away together in the same barracks for 9 weeks. There was also the problem between some unscrupulous male Drill Sergeants and female trainees. It was not an environment conducive to effective BCT. When we returned to same sex companies, males and females performed better.

Some years after there was a federal advisory commission formed that recommended against gender integrated training below platoon level and that males and females be housed separately, but the recommendations were disregarded. When my son graduated BCT in the 90’s his company was integrated at squad level. I was of the belief then and now that our basic trainees were not put into best possible training environment to learn discipline and basic combat skills. They were not integrated because it was the best training condition; they were integrated to support a social engineering agenda.

Then came Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT). Contrary to popular belief, DADT was not the law that prohibited homosexual service it was federal law passed by Congress that did that. DADT was a Clinton Administration policy to circumvent the law passed by Congress. Under Bill Clinton’s policy, a person entering the service could no longer be asked if they were homosexual (don’t ask) and they could serve as long as they did not declare their homosexuality (don’t tell). The other common myth is that it was a military policy. For the stupid among us, under the Constitution it is Congress that establishes rules for the Armed Forces. But the typical news idiot will always tell you that the “military” policy prohibiting homosexual service was repealed. Although homosexuals have always served, we are a better force now because we have open homosexuality, homosexual marriage and homosexual dependents? I suppose those now serving will have to answer that for you.

Women in Combat Arms, was a discussion even before I left the service. Most of the women I knew were not interested and most of the men did not care as long as the women could meet the standards. Combat Arms are now open to women. We were told that there would be no gender accommodations for physical standards…snicker, snicker… I saw a military times article that said there will be a unisex physical fitness standard. Male standards will be lowered. According to the Sergeant Major of the Army this will really increase troop morale. Well SMA, it looks like the participation trophy mentality has made it to the Army. Sorry brother, but maybe I am just an old dinosaur. But I do not recognize the Army you are building.

Now I suppose we have achieved social acceptance. Transgenders will now serve openly. I do not even know what that means. I suppose grooming and uniform standards just went out the window – and who knows what else. Will biological men wear women’s uniforms? Or male uniforms and make-up. Reckon that is why we are getting a unisex physical fitness standard?

Yep, let’s put another progressive administration in charge.

© 2016

Homeless Vets SOLUTION!-Plus Much More

by Rev. Austin Miles

WASHINGTON 6/20/16—There is plenty of federally funded money to get all homeless veterans off the streets at this very moment. Here is only one area where money can be found in the coffers of the U.S. Government. There are many more.

Homeless Veteran

This is what they are spending now, with OUR (taxpayers) money:  $13 million for ‘exploring musical preferences of monkeys!’ Another $1.1 million ‘judging whether cheerleaders are more attractive as a squad than individually.’  This expenditure, of course, is very much needed: $5 million to learn whether drunken birds slur when they sing. That, of course is of utmost importance to our survival as a nation. And another $390,000 to determine how many shakes a wet dog needs to feel dry

Plus seven BILLION in aid to countries that hate us, while we have homeless people on the streets that have NO aid. Meanwhile, WHAT ABOUT HOMELESS VETERANS WHO NEED HOUSING?

WHAT ABOUT AMERICAN FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN who do not have food money? Yes we have way too many hungry AMERICAN CITIZENS. How about smart young people who want to go to college and university who have no funds to do so.

These are genuine Americans who need assistance in order to become academically able to have professional careers that will benefit us all.  At least they should be able to provide interest free loans to those who are both qualified and able to benefit from a college/university education.

Obama is not insane. He knows exactly what he is doing in purposely giving money to strengthen those countries who are dedicated to wiping us off the map and putting what is left of America under Communist and Islamic rule.

And yet, the cowardly Republicans allow him to stay in the Oval Office when they could easily have the Sergeant at Arms escort him out of that office and charge him with TREASON. Yet, they do nothing.

While John F. Kennedy put a man on the moon, Obama has put a man in a woman’s bathroom. He has intentionally worked to blur the distinction of the sexes. Yesterday, Portland Judge Amy Holmes Hehn ruled that no longer will birth certificates list the gender of the baby…since that is hatred doncha know, They are now to be considered of ‘binary sex,” which the gays say, documents who they are. How’s that again??

National Radio Host Bob Boyd, of Issues in Education, pointed out that right after the Orlando Shootings, Obama tried to make it clear that the shooter does NOT represent all Muslims. If that’s the case, then why does that shooter represent all gun owners?  Good point to ponder.

Mr. Boyd also reasoned that if it is now the law that EVERYONE MUST perform ‘gay marriages,’ then when will they begin having those ‘weddings’ performed in a Mosque?  Great question.

In San Jose, a men’s restroom in Columbus Park is THE hook-up place for sodomites. Not necessarily with other deviants, but coming on to anyone who enters.  Still cannot understand how they are so sexually turned on by stinky public toilets. And they say, “we’re just like you.”  Really!

These goings on stimulated complaints since the park definitely is now not a safe place for children, or even adults. So the police dept. set up a sting operation using decoys. Arrests were made.

HOWEVER: The Obama Administration’s Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Jose S. Franco, according to the East County Times, concluded that “Sting operations at the park constituted selective discriminatory enforcement in violation of the suspect’s equal protection rights.”

This, of course, is profiling and “selective enforcement.”  We can’t have that y’know! Forget having cops patrol the streets. Instead, let’s have men in white coats. That would make more sense.

And finally, all are familiar with the Stanford University star swimmer, Brock Turner, who raped an incapacitated young woman. The Obama Administration Judge, Aaron Persky, simply slapped the rapist on the wrists and sentenced him to six months in county jail, which will only be three months.

The left-wing newspapers soften their accounts (after all, the defendant IS a Stanford swimming star) to say that he “sexually assaulted,” the young woman while she was incapacitated. JOURNALISTS-let’s tell it accurately.  While the young woman was incapacitated, Brock Turner RAPED her.  Meanwhile, the victim is now at fault since she was intoxicated.  AGAIN NEWS WRITERS: SHE WAS RAPED, NOT SEXUALLY ASSAULTED! Get it right for corn’s sake!

Oh yes, Judge Aaron Persky stated that a reason for the light (no) sentence for the serious crime of rape was due to the fact that he had no previous criminal record.  This would mean that anyone who has not had a criminal conviction is allowed to rape a girl once, meaning that all law abiding citizens have a rape coming. Are you kidding?  This is absurd!

Then today, someone came to kill Donald Trump at a rally, a kid with a gun. Trump is a serious threat to both Democrats and Republicans who are firmly settled in the status quo. Trump will turn all that around and that they do not want. If the Republican Party sabotages his nomination, Trump still has more than enough votes to put him in office. And these voters are American citizens who have had enough of government deception. They far outweigh those giving out false news stories that he cannot rally enough votes for that office.  Oh yes he can. He has already accomplished that.